From:
http://kunstler.com/blog/2013/02/scale-implosion.html
Saw The Future ...
Economists
have this expectation of Economic Growth as if it were a god given law
and not just a temporary quirk of a given era etc. The entire pattern of
Economic Growth emerged only thanks to technology and industrialization
and such, the application of technology to production processes and so
forth and then something that has been going on only within the last 300
years or so, also given to the fact that almost all of science has been
discovered in the last 300 years. The entire idea of growth comes from
the idea of progress, of going forward, of constant improvements, of
something constantly going higher and higher, better and better and this
can easily be traced to the progress in science and technology and its
effects accordingly on the economy and such. But it is a short story,
just a short period of time when humanity followed this path, it is not a
law, it is not to be taken for granted, it is a work in progress as the
pattern can change, will change and depends on any number of any
possible variables and such. But the economists insist, the USA and the
EU and JAPAN must grow, when this is essentially over, can no longer
happen and won't happen at least in the following years.
Some reasons:
1)
You cannot compare the possibility of growth with what China does since
China can force growth through unlimited government spending; and they
don't have the crappy democratic process blocking all kinds of projects
like high speed trains, nuclear plants and skyscrapers, something the
west can't do because the democratic process forces you to abide to the
greens and others and such, and yet all of these infrastructure and
large scale processes make China grow a lot economically, a kind of
forced growth, a kind of artificial growth (as opposed to Brazil or
India or Russia that seem to have a much natural automatic growth
similar to what the west once had when going from poor to middle class);
2)
You can't compare any possibility of growth (and expect that kind of
growth anymore) with what happened after WWII, entire continents
destroyed, huge work to do to build everything all over again in the
following years, the USA wins and has and can spend a lot of money for
defense and space projects and so forth (now the USA seems almost broke
and with a crazy health care system and such) the Marshall Plan in
Europe, only a few countries were industrialized JAPAN and Germany
starting all over again and so forth etc.;
3) You can't compare
any possible future growth with what the 20th century offered,
technology levels that still corresponded to job levels, to the creation
of jobs, less automation, entire new industries and such being born
like cars, jets, computers etc.;
4) A strong "physical" limit to
how much you can grow, only so many cars can be built (and used and
parked in puny Europe or JAPAN and such), only so many homes, especially
in the old, static and saturated west and such, countries that are
decaying naturally, saturated with goods and such, and now younger
countries like China and Indonesia can produce and consume a lot more,
grabbing market share from the US, EU and JAPAN and such.
And
many other reasons the USA, EU and JAPAN can't grow much economically
anymore, including high home prices, the amount of anger and negative
judgements firing people is always greater than the positive judgments
hiring people and so forth. Everyone wanting to punish everyone else and
so forth, the idea of government spending to create growth is
completely out of style, now the economists expect the invisible hand of
the market to hire people, good luck with that, but people are not
needed anymore, work is no longer needed in a technological society and
so forth and so on, many reasons, a never ending list of reasons.
But
the entire model of a society always growing is flawed from the outset,
our civilization and society is just a very short story and quirk,
there will be thousands of new histories and new events that will occur
in the future, all kinds of civilizations, some with huge growth cycles,
some with huge poverty cycles, some with all kinds of wars and insanity
and so forth, a never ending cycle of incredible events, combinations,
civilizations doing all kinds of things, Matter exploring (and exploding
itself ?) all of its possible combinations through Observers
interacting and creating all kinds of worlds and such.
The
possible cylces of creation destruction, growth and depression in a 10
million years could be 30,000 (times 300 years of each period, since
from 1700 to 2000 we had huge growth and change and such), wars and
population decreases and then increases, a never ending stream of new
histories, from super growth periods saturating the earth and solar
system with cars, marble cars, rockets, buildings and population, to
long periods of total nuclear destruction and war, to long periods of
stone age ape like societies (like the planet of the apes, all past
forgotten and ready to be discovered and invented again, and many cycles
of such forward, backward and so forth) all kinds of global warming,
environmental modifications and destructions and cycles and ice ages and
pollutions and who knows who and you invent it, imagine it, it is all
possible, and all kinds of technologies all kinds of possible
combinations of forces, population levels, from thousands of trillions
on earth to only a few hundred and then all over again and so forth,
from trillions of crazy modified brain hybrids roaming the earth like
crazy zombies and crazy horses, all kinds of genetical experiments went
wrong and such, all kinds of chip brain combinations gone wrong or
right, all kinds of solid state civilizations and then decaying again,
falling apart, going back and forth between stone ages and ape like
societies to super future modifed instant singularities travelling
inside incredible new universes and such, a never ending stream of crazy
history and such, and all kinds of wild animals, wild modified animals,
genetically modified animals with chips in their brains, trillions of
mad scientists trying out all kinds of insanities, and so forth; and we
will have eras of trillions of bridges across oceans and skyscrapers on
the sun, and then giant ocean liners and giant jet planes roaming the
earth and then trillions of skyscrapers, and thousands of trillions of
cars, and then rockets and venus completely changed by wild and crazy
animals that came out of wild and crazy experiments with chips and
genetics and technological singularities and super computers and a never
ending stream of futuristic technologies all being present at the same
time and so forth.
The point is our history is only a few hundred
years old, what the heck even our civilization is maybe only 20,000
years old: that is nothing compared to the billions of years ahead of us
of possible new histories and evolutions and patterns and
civilizations, imagine all the possible combinations and stories and
histories and interactions and forces and how many different ways things
can play out and so forth. And then history may last trillions of years
and full of virtual realities and maybe we will live inside chips
creating virtual realities with one second being equal to a trillion
years of history and so forth.
And then after all, it may simply
be just a close system talking to itself and evolving itself and self
manipulation itself in a closed box, imagine millions of small balls
containing millions of worlds and universes and observers and so forth,
all closed loop civilizations that have become independent from external
forces and so on...
So Neil Young got the timing wrong when he sang
"Look at mother nature on the run in the 1970",
he should have sung:
"Look at mother nature on the run in the 100 million"
shpacc a shalcc a s htallc cc cahns dsd
รน
8 men
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