Thursday, October 24, 2013

growth over 2

Re: Growth is Over !

Postby Smears » Thu Oct 24, 2013 9:04 am
This site needs a like button.
When I was a kid, I used to pray every night for a bicycle. Then I realized that's not how god works. So I stole one and asked him to forgive me. -some comedian. (the funniest jokes are the true ones, and this is just how most religious people act if you look at them as a group).
In the faculty of writing nonsense, stupidity is no match for genius. -Bagehot
Life is like a shit sandwich. The more bread you've got, the less shit you have to eat. -an old dude i met once
User avatar
resident contrarian
Posts: 14755
Joined: Sat Mar 17, 2007 9:54 am
Location: my own little bubble

Re: Growth is Over !

Postby nameta9 » Thu Oct 24, 2013 11:52 am

"Biochemistry professor Michael Behe, the originator of the term irreducible complexity, defines an irreducibly complex system as one "composed of several well-matched, interacting parts that contribute to the basic function, wherein the removal of any one of the parts causes the system to effectively cease functioning""

"Thomas H. Frazzetta. "A complex adaptation is one constructed of several components that must blend together operationally to make the adaptation "work""

To understand why the "Economic Growth" cycle is over and done with, consider that the economy is an example of a system that is simply of "Irreducible Compexity": all of the well matched, interlocking and interacting forces and parts and conditions and configurations and combinations that made the 20th century economy develop so fast and for so many decades was a one time quirk, a one time lucky break composed of so many parts, so many one time parts (like the introduction of Cars and Airplanes and TVs and all other kinds of technology increasing the standard of living), many factories paying first world salaries to workers in the USA, EU and JAPAN (no cheap competition from outsourcing, 3rd world workers), more natural resources left to exploit (more and cheaper oil), less pollution and constraints on the environment, a more open and optimistic psychological culture - social expectations - younger population, no health care prices going sky high or college costs going sky high or home rents going sky high and so forth, a never ending stream of interlocking parts and conditions creating a very fragile and delicate system of Irreducible Complexity whereas just a slight change of one of the parts creates all kinds of feedback loops that change the system into something else forever and no chance of ever going back again.

That is what we have today: the end of that growth economy and the beginning of the stagnating economy that will end up becoming mostly poverty for 60 to 70 percent of the population worldwide including the developed world since there is absolutely no project or plan to change anything at all: no large scale projects hiring millions to go to Mars for example, no governments hiring millions to simply give people a salary when work is no longer needed anyways, no building millions of skyscrapers, no free salaries and cheap rents and so forth, none of the only things that could change the system back into a system capable of distributing some of the huge wealth a Technological Economy automatically generates.

What we will end up having is a very mediocre standard of living maybe 20 to 30, at most 40 % of what we have today, some 600 to 1000 dollars a month pay to all workers worldwide (those few that work) and a convergnce of very average living conditions between all countries: the USA won't live much better than Indonesia and so forth.

But it will be gradual, no big jumps, just a slow decline and the end of the great leap forward the 20th century was. Most people will lead very average lives, no great wealth anymore, bar none, only the rich will be ever richer as usual.

Posts: 1811
Joined: Thu Nov 25, 2004 11:42 am

Re: Growth is Over !

Postby nameta9 » Thu Oct 24, 2013 11:54 am

From: ... -of-chaos/

"I find it amazing that probably the most important reason for so many problems in Italy is the cost of housing, the home prices and the rents, and nobody mentions or notices this!

This is the real crux of the problems in Italy: home prices tripled each decade from 1966 to 2006: a typical 80 square meter home in Rome (where the “jobs” are) went from costing 5000 dollars in 1966 to 15,000 in 1976 to 50,000 dollars in 1986 to 150,000 dollars in 1996 to almost 500,000 dollars in 2006. No one notices this or talks about this, this is incredible, but there is a reason: 80 percent of Italy are owners of homes and want to protect the “value” of their homes more than anything else, were all happy for this huge inflatiuon of home prices and so forth. All of the money saved went into buying homes, is crystallized in the home prices and this forced the rents to be sky high and effectively truly blocked the economy for many years and will keep on blocking it until these prices go way, way down.

A typical person in Rome or Milan can make 1,000 euros a month salary or 1,200, a typical small 50 square meter flat rents for 800 euros a month or more (usually more), now please tell me, what kind of economy can be based on this ? houses costing your entire salary ? The economy will never recover or even survive under these conditions of home prices, but everyone will keep on protecting their past wealth in the form of high home prices unitl the prices suddenly collpaes to zero, just like Detroit.

And notice, no one wants to build “new homes” for “ecological reasons”; in all truth they are hiding the fact that new homes could force the prices of the ones already built lower. And noticd no one wants to tax homes, they should be taxed one percent their market value, a 300,000 euro valued home in Rome or Milan should pay 3,000 euros a year of tax, finally the prices would collpase and maybe the economy could start going again."
Posts: 1811
Joined: Thu Nov 25, 2004 11:42 am

Return to Society, Government, and Economics

No comments:

Post a Comment