Thursday, October 24, 2013


Re: Growth is Over !

Postby nameta9 » Thu Oct 24, 2013 1:26 pm
nameta9 wrote:A typical person in Rome or Milan can make 1,000 euros a month salary or 1,200, a typical small 50 square meter flat rents for 800 euros a month or more (usually more), now please tell me, what kind of economy can be based on this ? houses costing your entire salary ? The economy will never recover or even survive under these conditions of home prices, but everyone will keep on protecting their past wealth in the form of high home prices unitl the prices suddenly collpaes to zero, just like Detroit.

And notice, no one wants to build “new homes” for “ecological reasons”; in all truth they are hiding the fact that new homes could force the prices of the ones already built lower. And notice no one wants to tax homes, they should be taxed one percent their market value, a 300,000 euro valued home in Rome or Milan should pay 3,000 euros a year of tax, finally the prices would collapse and maybe the economy could start going again."

This applies to most of the developed world anyways: in Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York City, Paris, London, Moscow and so forth Tokyo, Seoul and so on, it is always the same story, housing rents cost more than the average salary, hence growth is doomed no matter what, no forces want to change any of this, so this is the end of growth and it is happening very rapidly in China, Brazil etc. Shanghai prices are sky high, same for RIO de janeiro and so forth.

"Look at all the homes and buildings and stuff built in the USA, EU and JAPAN in the last 100 years. Are we going to build all the stuff all over again from now until 2100 ? No way jose', so how are these economies actually going to "Grow" anymore ?"

Just one fast calulation: if the worldwide value of all buildings and houses is 100 trillion dollars, that means that you would have to build 1 trillion dollars a year of houses for 100 years to equal the amount of houses made in the 20th century. So that would add up to building some 10 million houses or apartments a year worldwide for the next 100 years. So 5 million single family homes and some 5 million apartments a year worldwide or some 100,000 apartment buildings a year worldwide or some 200 buildings a day.

I don't see any of that huge amount of construction going on worldwide, not even by a long shot: I think China stopped building so many buildings in the last few years since they are now choking on empty apartments and they keep the prices sky high and way out of reach of any average salary in China (since apartments are "investments", are "cash" made up of bricks, go figure, such an idiotic idea, use cash as a weapon to beat up those who have less), so how is the worldwide economy going to grow at all ? They won't build the buildings if they can't sell of rent them but at the same time they won't give out salaries such that any average person can buy or rent them, hence growth is over and done with.

No way jose', give it up, it is over, doomed, we are doomed...

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