Monday, February 25, 2013

Saw The Future ...


Saw The Future ...

Economists have this expectation of Economic Growth as if it were a god given law and not just a temporary quirk of a given era etc. The entire pattern of Economic Growth emerged only thanks to technology and industrialization and such, the application of technology to production processes and so forth and then something that has been going on only within the last 300 years or so, also given to the fact that almost all of science has been discovered in the last 300 years. The entire idea of growth comes from the idea of progress, of going forward, of constant improvements, of something constantly going higher and higher, better and better and this can easily be traced to the progress in science and technology and its effects accordingly on the economy and such. But it is a short story, just a short period of time when humanity followed this path, it is not a law, it is not to be taken for granted, it is a work in progress as the pattern can change, will change and depends on any number of any possible variables and such. But the economists insist, the USA and the EU and JAPAN must grow, when this is essentially over, can no longer happen and won't happen at least in the following years.

Some reasons:

1) You cannot compare the possibility of growth with what China does since China can force growth through unlimited government spending; and they don't have the crappy democratic process blocking all kinds of projects like high speed trains, nuclear plants and skyscrapers, something the west can't do because the democratic process forces you to abide to the greens and others and such, and yet all of these infrastructure and large scale processes make China grow a lot economically, a kind of forced growth, a kind of artificial growth (as opposed to Brazil or India or Russia that seem to have a much natural automatic growth similar to what the west once had when going from poor to middle class);

2) You can't compare any possibility of growth (and expect that kind of growth anymore) with what happened after WWII, entire continents destroyed, huge work to do to build everything all over again in the following years, the USA wins and has and can spend a lot of money for defense and space projects and so forth (now the USA seems almost broke and with a crazy health care system and such) the Marshall Plan in Europe, only a few countries were industrialized JAPAN and Germany starting all over again and so forth etc.;

3) You can't compare any possible future growth with what the 20th century offered, technology levels that still corresponded to job levels, to the creation of jobs, less automation, entire new industries and such being born like cars, jets, computers etc.;

4) A strong "physical" limit to how much you can grow, only so many cars can be built (and used and parked in puny Europe or JAPAN and such), only so many homes, especially in the old, static and saturated west and such, countries that are decaying naturally, saturated with goods and such, and now younger countries like China and Indonesia can produce and consume a lot more, grabbing market share from the US, EU and JAPAN and such.

And many other reasons the USA, EU and JAPAN can't grow much economically anymore, including high home prices, the amount of anger and negative judgements firing people is always greater than the positive judgments hiring people and so forth. Everyone wanting to punish everyone else and so forth, the idea of government spending to create growth is completely out of style, now the economists expect the invisible hand of the market to hire people, good luck with that, but people are not needed anymore, work is no longer needed in a technological society and so forth and so on, many reasons, a never ending list of reasons.

But the entire model of a society always growing is flawed from the outset, our civilization and society is just a very short story and quirk, there will be thousands of new histories and new events that will occur in the future, all kinds of civilizations, some with huge growth cycles, some with huge poverty cycles, some with all kinds of wars and insanity and so forth, a never ending cycle of incredible events, combinations, civilizations doing all kinds of things, Matter exploring (and exploding itself ?) all of its possible combinations through Observers interacting and creating all kinds of worlds and such.

The possible cylces of creation destruction, growth and depression in a 10 million years could be 30,000 (times 300 years of each period, since from 1700 to 2000 we had huge growth and change and such), wars and population decreases and then increases, a never ending stream of new histories, from super growth periods saturating the earth and solar system with cars, marble cars, rockets, buildings and population, to long periods of total nuclear destruction and war, to long periods of stone age ape like societies (like the planet of the apes, all past forgotten and ready to be discovered and invented again, and many cycles of such forward, backward and so forth) all kinds of global warming, environmental modifications and destructions and cycles and ice ages and pollutions and who knows who and you invent it, imagine it, it is all possible, and all kinds of technologies all kinds of possible combinations of forces, population levels, from thousands of trillions on earth to only a few hundred and then all over again and so forth, from trillions of crazy modified brain hybrids roaming the earth like crazy zombies and crazy horses, all kinds of genetical experiments went wrong and such, all kinds of chip brain combinations gone wrong or right, all kinds of solid state civilizations and then decaying again, falling apart, going back and forth between stone ages and ape like societies to super future modifed instant singularities travelling inside incredible new universes and such, a never ending stream of crazy history and such, and all kinds of wild animals, wild modified animals, genetically modified animals with chips in their brains, trillions of mad scientists trying out all kinds of insanities, and so forth; and we will have eras of trillions of bridges across oceans and skyscrapers on the sun, and then giant ocean liners and giant jet planes roaming the earth and then trillions of skyscrapers, and thousands of trillions of cars, and then rockets and venus completely changed by wild and crazy animals that came out of wild and crazy experiments with chips and genetics and technological singularities and super computers and a never ending stream of futuristic technologies all being present at the same time and so forth.

The point is our history is only a few hundred years old, what the heck even our civilization is maybe only 20,000 years old: that is nothing compared to the billions of years ahead of us of possible new histories and evolutions and patterns and civilizations, imagine all the possible combinations and stories and histories and interactions and forces and how many different ways things can play out and so forth. And then history may last trillions of years and full of virtual realities and maybe we will live inside chips creating virtual realities with one second being equal to a trillion years of history and so forth.

And then after all, it may simply be just a close system talking to itself and evolving itself and self manipulation itself in a closed box, imagine millions of small balls containing millions of worlds and universes and observers and so forth, all closed loop civilizations that have become independent from external forces and so on...

So Neil Young got the timing wrong when he sang

"Look at mother nature on the run in the 1970",

he should have sung:

"Look at mother nature on the run in the 100 million"

shpacc a shalcc a s htallc cc cahns dsd

8 men

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